NASA 2012

March 10, 2006: It's official: Solar minimum has arrived. Sunspots have all but vanished. Solar flares are nonexistent. The sun is utterly quiet.

Like the quiet before a storm.

This week researchers announced that a storm is coming--the most intense solar maximum in fifty years. The prediction comes from a team led by Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one," she says. If correct, the years ahead could produce a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958.

That was a solar maximum. The Space Age was just beginning: Sputnik was launched in Oct. 1957 and Explorer 1 (the first US satellite) in Jan. 1958. In 1958 you couldn't tell that a solar storm was underway by looking at the bars on your cell phone; cell phones didn't exist. Even so, people knew something big was happening when Northern Lights were sighted three times in Mexico. A similar maximum now would be noticed by its effect on cell phones, GPS, weather satellites and many other modern technologies.                

 

Right: Intense auroras over Fairbanks, Alaska, in 1958.

 

Dikpati's prediction is unprecedented. In nearly-two centuries since the 11-year sunspot cycle was discovered, scientists have struggled to predict the size of future maxima—and failed. Solar maxima can be intense, as in 1958, or barely detectable, as in 1805, obeying no obvious pattern.

The key to the mystery, Dikpati realized years ago, is a conveyor belt on the sun.

We have something similar here on Earth—the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt, popularized in the sci-fi movie The Day After Tomorrow. It is a network of currents that carry water and heat from ocean to ocean--see the diagram below. In the movie, the Conveyor Belt stopped and threw the world's weather into chaos.

Above: Earth's "Great Ocean Conveyor Belt."

 

The sun's conveyor belt is a current, not of water, but of electrically-conducting gas. It flows in a loop from the sun's equator to the poles and back again. Just as the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt controls weather on Earth, this solar conveyor belt controls weather on the sun. Specifically, it controls the sunspot cycle.

Solar physicist David Hathaway of the National Space Science & Technology Center (NSSTC) explains: "First, remember what sunspots are--tangled knots of magnetism generated by the sun's inner dynamo. A typical sunspot exists for just a few weeks. Then it decays, leaving behind a 'corpse' of weak magnetic fields."

Enter the conveyor belt.

"The top of the conveyor belt skims the surface of the sun, sweeping up the magnetic fields of old, dead sunspots. The 'corpses' are dragged down at the poles to a depth of 200,000 km where the sun's magnetic dynamo can amplify them. Once the corpses (magnetic knots) are reincarnated (amplified), they become buoyant and float back to the surface." Presto—new sunspots!

Right: The sun's "great conveyor belt." 

 

All this happens with massive slowness. "It takes about 40 years for the belt to complete one loop," says Hathaway. The speed varies "anywhere from a 50-year pace (slow) to a 30-year pace (fast)."

When the belt is turning "fast," it means that lots of magnetic fields are being swept up, and that a future sunspot cycle is going to be intense. This is a basis for forecasting: "The belt was turning fast in 1986-1996," says Hathaway. "Old magnetic fields swept up then should re-appear as big sunspots in 2010-2011."

Like most experts in the field, Hathaway has confidence in the conveyor belt model and agrees with Dikpati that the next solar maximum should be a doozy. But he disagrees with one point. Dikpati's forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011.

"History shows that big sunspot cycles 'ramp up' faster than small ones," he says. "I expect to see the first sunspots of the next cycle appear in late 2006 or 2007—and Solar Max to be underway by 2010 or 2011."

Who's right? Time will tell. Either way, a storm is coming.

Author: Dr. Tony Phillips

NASA Science Predicts 2012 Sun Pole Shift, Pole Reversal

Yes, it's true. NASA predicts a solar pole shift, a polar reversal that will happen in 2012 on the sun. However, this is not unusual for the sun's poles to flip. This happens every 11 years. The last time the sun had a pole reversal was in 2001. The fact that the sun will have a polar shift where the poles literally reverse is a natural occurrence and is nothing to be amazed about. This happens constantly in the sun's cycles. This is not unusual science from NASA.

Solar Flares, Solar Wind, Solar Storms, and Sun Spots

What is unusual are the predictions from NASA about the solar flares, sun storms, solar wind and the solar activity concerning sun spots in 2012. Solar Cycle 24 is a level of maximum solar activity on the sun in 2012. What has scientists concerned are the effects of solar wind, solar storms, and solar flares on our planet.

Effects of Solar Flares, Solar Wind, Solar Storms and Sunspots

The effects of solar flares, solar wind, solar storms and sunspots can be devastating on the Earth, and it is being particularly examined concerning 2012. High solar activity and the Earth don't mix well. What has alarmed NASA scientists is that the magnetic field of the Earth is decreasing, and that is the only component that protects the Earth from the sun's harmful rays. Besides the solar effects on the Earth, all communication and technology would be rendered useless as well if the magnetic field were decreased or the poles flip. Even if solar flares, solar wind, solar storms and sunspots aren't an issue, just the mere rays of the sun and the radiation that would enter the Earth's atmosphere would be enough to kill all plant life and therefore animal and human life in turn if the magnetic field were gone or severely reduced.

With the pole flip and pole reversal of the Earth being possible, and anomalies in the magnetic field of the Earth are already present, there is some concern about the magnetic field decreasing and what effect that would have on Earth life. Those who are in the deep underground bunkers might survive since those have been being set up for over 30 years for maintaining human, animal and plant life in case of an emergency. However, anyone on the surface would die just from the loss of plant life and climate on the Earth. That would happen anyway even if a solar plasma cloud, solar storm, solar wind or solar flare never reached the Earth. The effects would be dire just by the sun's radiation alone.

Sun Cycles, Solar Cycle 24

Sun cycles are natural and happen every 11 years, as we have stated. The poles reverse and shift back and forth every cycle. Solar Cycle 24 is getting a lot of attention though from NASA science these days concerning the 2012 upcoming cycle of the pole shift on the sun. Solar Cycle 24 is predicted to be 50% more solar activity than normal, for some reason. It could be because there are other celestial influences this time compared to the other sun cycles that have happened in the past. If Niburu, Planet X is for real, that could have some influence. The passing of the Earth and this entire solar system through the galactic equator could have some influence, and there may be influences from within the sun itself that no one really knows much about. There are various reasons that NASA scientists are putting out as to why there might be more violence in the sun's cycles with the upcoming Sun Cycle 24 in 2012.

Will The Earth Be Destroyed By the Sun's Fire?

Scientists don't know for sure what will happen, of course, since humanity has never been through one of these cycles before in its known history. Many people have speculated that this is what is meant when God told Noah in the Bible that he would destroy the Earth by fire instead of flooding the next time he destroys everything, and other speculate that the world being destroyed by fire means nuclear wars will do in humanity. Either way, there is no scientific proof that what the Bible says will come to pass. However, the sun's recent activity and its natural cycles have scientists concerned for good reason.

Movies like Knowing explore the idea of what it would be like if a solar flare, solar storm, solar wind or solar plasma cloud were to cause the end of the world. There are many ways that have been explored in mass consciousness through movies as to all the different ways life on Earth could be destroyed, from asteroids hitting, climate changes, tsunamis and earthquakes, volcanoes, and nuclear war. Of course there had to be a movie about the scientific speculation that a solar storm, solar flare or solar wind could harm the Earth. In light of these movies and scientific explorations of how life on Earth could end in this world, we should realize that life on Earth is truly fragile and it is a miracle that we are here at all! After all the universe is a violent place when celestial events occur.

No matter what, it has yet to be seen what will happen. This is uncharted territory for humanity and we are all on this ride for the first time that we know of in recorded history. Do not be afraid though. That is no way to live your life, even if it is shortened by a celestial event in the long run. Who knows? All of this could take generations to unfold and maybe the solar pole reversal that will happen in 2012 will just be business as usual in the universe like it has been every 11 years before this. Pole shifts on the sun are not out of the ordinary at all.